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我们是否已达极限?

Are We Reaching the Limits of ?

作者信息

Marck Adrien, Antero Juliana, Berthelot Geoffroy, Saulière Guillaume, Jancovici Jean-Marc, Masson-Delmotte Valérie, Boeuf Gilles, Spedding Michael, Le Bourg Éric, Toussaint Jean-François

机构信息

Institut de Recherche bio-Médicale et d'Epidémiologie du Sport (IRMES) EA 7329, Institut National du Sport, de l'Expertise et de la Performance, Université Paris Descartes, Université Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France.

Laboratoire Matière et Systèmes Complexes, UMR 7057 Université Paris Diderot, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France.

出版信息

Front Physiol. 2017 Oct 24;8:812. doi: 10.3389/fphys.2017.00812. eCollection 2017.

Abstract

Echoing scientific and industrial progress, the Twentieth century was an unprecedented period of improvement for human capabilities and performances, with a significant increase in lifespan, adult height, and maximal physiological performance. Analyses of historical data show a major slow down occurring in the most recent years. This triggered large and passionate debates in the academic scene within multiple disciplines; as such an observation could be interpreted as our upper biological limits. Such a new phase of human history may be related to structural and functional limits determined by long term evolutionary constraints, and the interaction between complex systems and their environment. In this interdisciplinary approach, we call into question the validity of subsequent forecasts and projections through innovative and related biomarkers such as sport, lifespan, and height indicators. We set a theoretical framework based on biological and environmental relevance rather than using a typical single-variable forecasting approach. As demonstrated within the article, these new views will have major social, economical, and political implications.

摘要

呼应科学和工业进步,二十世纪是人类能力和表现取得空前进步的时期,寿命、成人身高和最大生理机能都有显著增长。对历史数据的分析表明,最近几年出现了重大放缓。这在多个学科的学术领域引发了广泛而热烈的辩论;因为这样的观察结果可能被解释为我们的生物上限。人类历史的这一新阶段可能与长期进化限制所决定的结构和功能限制,以及复杂系统与其环境之间的相互作用有关。在这种跨学科方法中,我们通过运动、寿命和身高指标等创新及相关生物标志物,对后续预测和推算的有效性提出质疑。我们建立了一个基于生物学和环境相关性的理论框架,而不是使用典型的单变量预测方法。如本文所示,这些新观点将产生重大的社会、经济和政治影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0ff9/5662890/4b917192430b/fphys-08-00812-g0001.jpg

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