Houston David J, Richardson Lilliard E
Department of Political Science, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, 37996-0410, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 2002 Nov;34(6):743-51. doi: 10.1016/s0001-4575(01)00074-4.
This study explores whether the change of an existing seat belt law from secondary to primary enforcement enhances traffic safety. In particular, we examine traffic fatalities and injuries in California from 1988 to 1997. During the first half of this period, California law provided for secondary enforcement of its mandatory seat belt law, but in 1993 it upgraded the law to primary enforcement. Controlling for the number of motor vehicle collisions, a Box-Tiao intervention analysis of the time series is used to compare the monthly fatalities and injuries before and after the change in the enforcement provision. The results show that California experienced an improvement in traffic safety in terms of a significant reduction in injuries, but the change in enforcement provision had no statistically significant impact on fatalities.
本研究探讨将现有安全带法律从二级执法改为一级执法是否能提高交通安全。具体而言，我们研究了1988年至1997年加利福尼亚州的交通死亡和受伤情况。在此期间的前半段，加利福尼亚州法律规定对其强制性安全带法律进行二级执法，但在1993年将该法律升级为一级执法。在控制机动车碰撞数量的情况下，使用时间序列的Box-Tiao干预分析来比较执法规定变更前后的月度死亡和受伤情况。结果表明，加利福尼亚州在交通安全方面有所改善，受伤人数大幅减少，但执法规定的变更对死亡人数没有统计学上的显著影响。
