Folke Carl, Carpenter Steve, Elmqvist Thomas, Gunderson Lance, Holling C S, Walker Brian
Interdisciplinary Center of Natural Resources and Environmental Research, Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
Ambio. 2002 Aug;31(5):437-40. doi: 10.1579/0044-7447-31.5.437.
Emerging recognition of two fundamental errors underpinning past polices for natural resource issues heralds awareness of the need for a worldwide fundamental change in thinking and in practice of environmental management. The first error has been an implicit assumption that ecosystem responses to human use are linear, predictable and controllable. The second has been an assumption that human and natural systems can be treated independently. However, evidence that has been accumulating in diverse regions all over the world suggests that natural and social systems behave in nonlinear ways, exhibit marked thresholds in their dynamics, and that social-ecological systems act as strongly coupled, complex and evolving integrated systems. This article is a summary of a report prepared on behalf of the Environmental Advisory Council to the Swedish Government, as input to the process of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg, South Africa in 26 August 4 September 2002. We use the concept of resilience--the capacity to buffer change, learn and develop--as a framework for understanding how to sustain and enhance adaptive capacity in a complex world of rapid transformations. Two useful tools for resilience-building in social-ecological systems are structured scenarios and active adaptive management. These tools require and facilitate a social context with flexible and open institutions and multi-level governance systems that allow for learning and increase adaptive capacity without foreclosing future development options.
人们逐渐认识到，过去自然资源问题政策所基于的两个根本性错误预示着，有必要在全球范围内对环境管理的思维和实践进行根本性变革。第一个错误是隐含地假定生态系统对人类利用的反应是线性的、可预测的和可控的。第二个错误是假定人类系统和自然系统可以独立对待。然而，世界各地不同地区不断积累的证据表明，自然系统和社会系统的行为是非线性的，其动态表现出明显的阈值，而且社会生态系统是强耦合、复杂且不断演变的综合系统。本文是一份代表瑞典政府环境咨询委员会编写的报告的摘要，作为对2002年8月26日至9月4日在南非约翰内斯堡举行的可持续发展问题世界首脑会议（WSSD）进程的投入。我们使用恢复力这一概念——缓冲变化、学习和发展的能力——作为一个框架，来理解如何在快速变革的复杂世界中维持和增强适应能力。社会生态系统中建设恢复力的两个有用工具是结构化情景和积极适应性管理。这些工具需要并促进一个具有灵活开放的机构和多层次治理系统的社会环境，这种环境允许学习并提高适应能力，同时不排除未来的发展选择。
