Li Ting, Dong Yuxiang, Wei Xinghu, Zhou Hongyi, Li Zhiwen
School of Architecture and Planning, Foshan University, Foshan, 528011, China.
School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Aug 28;14(1):19914. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-71039-5.
Systems theory and complex science, especially knowledge of social-ecological interdependencies, are urgently needed in planning and decision-making on sustainable urban development due to the intensification of the contradiction between human development and nature conservation. Here, we present an analytical framework, the "social-ecological coupling trajectory", that integrates the social-ecological coupling, multi-stability, causal feedbacks and sustainable management through understanding the evolution of the urban social-ecological system (SES). This framework is applied to a typical urban SES, i.e., China's rapidly prosperous Pearl River Delta (PRD). Our results indicate that the SES evolution in the PRD is a phased process, which is accompanied by a continuous decline in major ecosystem services (ESs) and the disproportionate decline of ecological management performance. Further analysis shows that social and economic policies have a decisive role in driving the evolution of SES and the cumulative effect of sustained human interference is directly linked to the disproportionate increase in sustainability challenges. The findings of critical slowing down and evolution patterns of SES in the PRD may provide evidence for the threshold recognition and regime shift prediction in SES. In sum, this study expands the theoretical framework and empirical knowledge of SES evolution and provides a pathway for sustainable development of regions seeking prosperity from the social-ecological coupling perspective.
由于人类发展与自然保护之间的矛盾日益加剧，系统理论和复杂科学，特别是社会生态相互依存关系的知识，在可持续城市发展的规划和决策中迫切需要。在此，我们提出了一个分析框架，即“社会生态耦合轨迹”，通过理解城市社会生态系统（SES）的演变，将社会生态耦合、多稳定性、因果反馈和可持续管理整合在一起。该框架应用于一个典型的城市SES，即中国快速繁荣的珠江三角洲（PRD）。我们的结果表明，珠三角地区的SES演变是一个分阶段的过程，伴随着主要生态系统服务（ESs）的持续下降以及生态管理绩效的不成比例下降。进一步分析表明，社会和经济政策在推动SES演变方面具有决定性作用，持续的人类干扰的累积效应与可持续性挑战的不成比例增加直接相关。珠三角地区SES临界减速和演变模式的研究结果可能为SES中的阈值识别和状态转变预测提供证据。总之，本研究扩展了SES演变的理论框架和实证知识，并从社会生态耦合的角度为寻求繁荣的地区的可持续发展提供了一条途径。
