Estimation of cancer deaths in Korea for the upcoming years.

Since the cancer has been the leading cause of deaths in Korea, estimation of the cancer deaths for the upcoming years in the population using the vital statistics is considered to be necessary. The aim of this study was to estimate the number and trends of cancer deaths in Korea. The expected numbers of cancer deaths were calculated by a time series model fitting the actual numbers of cancer deaths for each of the years 1983 through 2000 reported by Korea National Statistical Office. The options selected for the time series model included a quadratic time trend, which incorporated long-term information into the model and an autoregressive component which incorporated information about short-term fluctuations. The forecasting numbers of cancer deaths and their 95% confidence intervals were estimated for both genders and primary sites. The forecasting number of deaths from all cancers is increasing so that the cumulative number of expected cancer deaths between 2001 and 2005 would be about 309 thousand persons. Cancers of the lung, stomach, liver, and colorectum continue to be the most common causes of cancer deaths. While the numbers of expected cancer deaths in the stomach and liver show a decreasing trend, the cancer in the lung, colorectum, pancreas, breast, and oral cavity have an increasing trend. These observations indicate that cancer deaths in the near future would be increasing through the early 2000s, and there should be some urgent government's policy on the cancer management.