Luketina D, Bender M
Water Resources, Technical and Research Center Paris, ONDEO Services, Le Pecq-sur-Seine, France.
Water Sci Technol. 2002;46(6-7):113-20.
This paper examines factors affecting water availability and hydrological trends of water supply. The relative impacts of the different factors have been assessed on a planning time frame of around 30 years. It is demonstrated that the non-greenhouse processes of multi-decadal climate change and el Niño-la Niña climate change will almost certainly be more significant than greenhouse induced climate change. Further, in developing countries, increased water consumption, population growth, and urbanization are likely to be the dominant factors when considering water availability. The type of responses that a water supply organization can make are discussed.
本文研究了影响供水可用水量和水文趋势的因素。已在约30年的规划时间范围内评估了不同因素的相对影响。结果表明，年代际气候变化和厄尔尼诺-拉尼娜气候变化的非温室过程几乎肯定比温室气体导致的气候变化更为显著。此外，在发展中国家，考虑可用水量时，用水量增加、人口增长和城市化可能是主要因素。文中还讨论了供水机构可以做出的应对类型。
