Binding affinity prediction of novel estrogen receptor ligands using receptor-based 3-D QSAR methods.

We have recently reported the development of a 3-D QSAR model for estrogen receptor ligands showing a significant correlation between calculated molecular interaction fields and experimentally measured binding affinity. The ligand alignment obtained from docking simulations was taken as basis for a comparative field analysis applying the GRID/GOLPE program. Using the interaction field derived with a water probe and applying the smart region definition (SRD) variable selection procedure, a significant and robust model was obtained (q(2)(LOO)=0.921, SDEP=0.345). To further analyze the robustness and the predictivity of the established model several recently developed estrogen receptor ligands were selected as external test set. An excellent agreement between predicted and experimental binding data was obtained indicated by an external SDEP of 0.531. Two other traditionally used prediction techniques were applied in order to check the performance of the receptor-based 3-D QSAR procedure. The interaction energies calculated on the basis of receptor-ligand complexes were correlated with experimentally observed affinities. Also ligand-based 3-D QSAR models were generated using program FlexS. The interaction energy-based model, as well as the ligand-based 3-D QSAR models yielded models with lower predictivity. The comparison with the interaction energy-based model and with the ligand-based 3-D QSAR models, respectively, indicates that the combination of receptor-based and 3-D QSAR methods is able to improve the quality of prediction.