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含有生物恐怖主义天花病毒。

Containing bioterrorist smallpox.

作者信息

Halloran M Elizabeth, Longini Ira M, Nizam Azhar, Yang Yang

机构信息

Department of Biostatistics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.

出版信息

Science. 2002 Nov 15;298(5597):1428-32. doi: 10.1126/science.1074674.

Abstract

The need for a planned response to a deliberate introduction of smallpox has recently become urgent. We constructed a stochastic simulator of the spread of smallpox in structured communities to compare the effectiveness of mass vaccination versus targeted vaccination of close contacts of cases. Mass vaccination before smallpox introduction or immediately after the first cases was more effective than targeted vaccination in preventing and containing epidemics if there was no prior herd immunity (that is, no prior immunologic protection within the population). The effectiveness of postrelease targeted and mass vaccinations increased if we assumed that there was residual immunity in adults vaccinated before 1972, but the effectiveness of targeted vaccination increased more than that of mass vaccination. Under all scenarios, targeted vaccination prevented more cases per dose of vaccine than did mass vaccination. Although further research with larger-scale structured models is needed, our results suggest that increasing herd immunity, perhaps with a combination of preemptive voluntary vaccination and vaccination of first responders, could enhance the effectiveness of postattack intervention. It could also help targeted vaccination be more competitive with mass vaccination at both preventing and containing a deliberate introduction of smallpox.

摘要

针对故意引入天花制定应对计划的需求最近变得紧迫起来。我们构建了一个天花在结构化社区中传播的随机模拟器,以比较大规模接种疫苗与对病例密切接触者进行针对性接种疫苗的效果。如果没有先前的群体免疫(即人群中没有先前的免疫保护),在引入天花之前或首例病例出现后立即进行大规模接种疫苗,在预防和控制疫情方面比针对性接种疫苗更有效。如果我们假设1972年之前接种疫苗的成年人存在残余免疫力,那么疫情爆发后针对性接种和大规模接种的效果都会提高,但针对性接种效果的提高幅度大于大规模接种。在所有情况下,每剂疫苗针对性接种预防的病例数都比大规模接种更多。尽管需要使用更大规模的结构化模型进行进一步研究,但我们的结果表明,或许通过先发制的自愿接种和急救人员接种相结合的方式来提高群体免疫力,可以增强袭击后干预措施的效果。这也有助于针对性接种在预防和控制故意引入天花方面比大规模接种更具竞争力。

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