Childhood vaccine purchase costs in the public sector: past trends, future expectations.

OBJECTIVES

We examined recent public-sector trends in childhood vaccine costs and estimated future costs.

METHODS

We used public-sector price data to calculate vaccine purchase cost per child for children aged 0 to 6 years from 1975 to 2001. We fit a linear regression model to historical data and then used it to project costs per child from 2002 to 2020, adjusted to 2001 US dollars.

RESULTS

Controlling for inflation, the cost of vaccine purchase per child climbed from $10 in 1975 to $385 in 2001. The cost of vaccine purchase in the year 2020 following recommendation of 7 additional vaccines is estimated to be $1225 per child (95% confidence interval = $891, $1559).

CONCLUSIONS

The cost per child for recommended vaccines at public-sector prices may triple over the next 2 decades. These projections have implications for vaccine financing at federal and state levels.