Statistical mechanical treatment of protein conformation. III. Prediction of protein conformation based on a three-state model.

The method proposed for the evaluation of statistical weights in paper I, and the three-state model [alpha-helical (alpha), extended (epsilon), and other (c) states] formulated in paper II, have been used to develop a procedure to predict the backbone conformations of proteins, based on the concept of the predominant role played by shortrange interactions in determining protein conformation. Conformational probability profiles, in which the probabilities of formation of three consecutive alpha-helical conformations (triad) and of four consecutive extended conformations (tetrad) have been defined relative to their average values over the whole molecule, are calculated for 19 proteins, of which 16 had been used in paper I to evaluate the set of statistical weights of the 20 naturally occurring amino acids. By comparing these conformational probability profiles to experimental x-ray observations, the following results have been obtained: 80% of the alpha-helical regions and 72% of the extended conformational regions have been predicted correctly for the 19 proteins. The percentage of residues predicted correctly is in the range of 53 to 90% for the alpha-helical conformation and in the range of 63 to 88% for the extended conformation for the 19 proteins in the two-state models [alpha-helical (alpha) and other (c) states, and extended (epsilon) and other (c) states]. In the three-state model, the percentage of residues predicted correctly is in the range of 47% to 77 for 19 proteins. These results suggest that the assumption of the dominance of short-range interactions, on which the predictive scheme is based, is a reasonable one. The present predictive method is compared with that of other authors.