输血对英国丙型肝炎病毒感染的影响。
The contribution of transfusion to HCV infection in England.
作者信息
Soldan K, Ramsay M, Robinson A, Harris H, Anderson N, Caffrey E, Chapman C, Dike A, Gabra G, Gorman A, Herborn A, Hewitt P, Hewson N, Jones D A, Llewelyn C, Love E, Muddu V, Martlew V, Townley A
机构信息
National Blood Service, Oak House, Reeds Crescent, Watford WD24 4QN, UK.
出版信息
Epidemiol Infect. 2002 Dec;129(3):587-91. doi: 10.1017/s0950268802007744.
The English HCV lookback programme has identified some individuals with transfusion-transmitted HCV infection. The path from the collection of donations from HCV-infected donors to the identification of infected recipients was constructed. The probability of different outcomes at each branch was derived from data collected during this programme. This path of probabilities was then used to produce a complete estimate of the number of recipients infected by blood transfusions (dead and alive at the end of 1995) by re-entry of blood components that fell out of the lookback at various steps prior to recipient testing, and entry of components from HCV-infected donations that were never identified for lookback. Less than 14,000 recipients were estimated to have been infected with HCV during the decade prior to the start of donation testing. Over 60% of these were expected to have died by the end of 1995. Transfusion has infected a large group of individuals. However, this group constitutes a very small, and declining, proportion of all HCV infections in the population.
英国丙型肝炎病毒追溯计划已识别出一些因输血感染丙型肝炎病毒的个体。构建了从丙型肝炎病毒感染献血者的血液采集到感染受血者识别的路径。每个分支不同结果的概率来自该计划期间收集的数据。然后，通过重新纳入在受血者检测前各个步骤中从追溯中遗漏的血液成分，以及纳入从未被识别用于追溯的丙型肝炎病毒感染献血的成分，利用这条概率路径对输血感染的受血者数量（1995年底时存活和死亡的）进行完整估计。据估计，在献血检测开始前的十年中，感染丙型肝炎病毒的受血者不到14000人。预计到1995年底，其中超过60%的人已经死亡。输血感染了一大群人。然而，这一群体在人群中所有丙型肝炎病毒感染中所占比例非常小，且在不断下降。
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