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前景相对性:风险下选择选项如何影响决策

Prospect relativity: how choice options influence decision under risk.

作者信息

Stewart Neil, Chater Nick, Stott Henry P, Reimers Stian

机构信息

Department of Psychology, University of Warwick, Coventry, England.

出版信息

J Exp Psychol Gen. 2003 Mar;132(1):23-46. doi: 10.1037/0096-3445.132.1.23.

Abstract

In many theories of decision under risk (e.g., expected utility theory, rank-dependent utility theory, and prospect theory), the utility of a prospect is independent of other options in the choice set. The experiments presented here show a large effect of the available options, suggesting instead that prospects are valued relative to one another. The judged certainty equivalent for a prospect is strongly influenced by the options available. Similarly, the selection of a preferred prospect is strongly influenced by the prospects available. Alternative theories of decision under risk (e.g., the stochastic difference model, multialternative decision field theory, and range frequency theory), where prospects are valued relative to one another, can provide an account of these context effects.

摘要

在许多风险决策理论中(例如,预期效用理论、等级依赖效用理论和前景理论),一个前景的效用独立于选择集中的其他选项。此处展示的实验表明了可用选项的巨大影响,这表明前景是相对于彼此进行估值的。一个前景的判断确定性等价物受到可用选项的强烈影响。同样,对首选前景的选择也受到可用前景的强烈影响。风险决策的其他理论(例如,随机差异模型、多选项决策场理论和范围频率理论),其中前景是相对于彼此进行估值的,可以解释这些情境效应。

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