Department of Management, Huddersfield Business School, The University of Huddersfield.
Department of Psychology, Teesside University.
J Exp Psychol Gen. 2020 Mar;149(3):585-589. doi: 10.1037/xge0000655. Epub 2019 Jul 18.
Understanding human behavior from the perspective of normative and descriptive theories depends on human agents having stable and coherent decision-making preferences. Both utility theory (expected rational behavior; von Neumann & Morgenstern, 1947) and prospect theory, with its certainty equivalent (CE) method (expected irrational behavior; Tversky & Kahneman, 1992), assume stable behavioral patterns of risk preferences. In contrast, our research pursues the opposite proposal: Human preferences (rational or irrational) are not stable; variations in the decision context during risk elicitation determine people's preferences even when the utilities of choice options are available. Accordingly, we found evidence that decision makers reverse their risk preferences between CE tasks with logarithmically spaced certainty (unequal number of risk-averse and risk-seeking sure options) and linearly spaced certainty (equal number of risk-averse and risk-seeking sure options). The results revealed that the effect of probability range (low and high) on preferences, predicted by prospect theory, is an artifact of the logarithmically spaced sure options. When the sure options were linearly spaced, the probability range no longer influenced risk preferences, indicating a preference reversal between decision tasks. Our findings highlight a need to investigate how the predictions of descriptive decision-making theories are shaped by their risk elicitation methods. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).
从规范和描述性理论的角度理解人类行为取决于人类行为者具有稳定和连贯的决策偏好。效用理论（预期理性行为；冯·诺依曼和摩根斯坦，1947）和前景理论都假设风险偏好具有稳定的行为模式，而前景理论及其确定性等价物（CE）方法（预期非理性行为；特沃斯基和卡尼曼，1992）。相比之下，我们的研究提出了相反的观点：人类偏好（理性或非理性）并不稳定；在风险诱发过程中，决策情境的变化决定了人们的偏好，即使选择选项的效用是可用的。因此，我们发现有证据表明，决策者在对数间距确定（风险厌恶和风险寻求的确定选项数量不等）和线性间距确定（风险厌恶和风险寻求的确定选项数量相等）的 CE 任务之间会改变风险偏好。结果表明，前景理论预测的概率范围（低和高）对偏好的影响是对数间距确定选项的人为产物。当确定选项呈线性间隔时，概率范围不再影响风险偏好，表明在决策任务之间存在偏好反转。我们的研究结果强调需要研究描述性决策理论的预测是如何受到其风险诱发方法的影响的。（美国心理协会，2020 年，所有权利保留）。
