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[生态预测:生态学的一个前沿领域]

[Ecological forecasting: a frontier in ecology].

作者信息

Zeng Dehui, Jiang Fengqi, Fan Zhiping, Ji Lanzhu

机构信息

Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016.

出版信息

Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2002 Dec;13(12):1699-702.

Abstract

An evolving science of ecological forecasting is beginning to emerge, and could have an increasingly important role in policy-making and management of natural resources and environment. The progress in computer science, quantitative analysis and ecological theory, together with the application of new high technology, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. The authors introduced the connotation of ecological forecasting, relevant research advances, and some typical examples. Ecological forecasting is an important frontier in ecology, and also, would be an important direction for future ecological study.

摘要

一门不断发展的生态预测科学正开始兴起,并可能在自然资源与环境的政策制定和管理中发挥越来越重要的作用。计算机科学、定量分析和生态理论的进展,以及新技术的应用,将提高我们预测生态系统变化的能力。作者介绍了生态预测的内涵、相关研究进展以及一些典型实例。生态预测是生态学的一个重要前沿领域,也将是未来生态学研究的一个重要方向。

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