Jonkman S N, van Gelder P H A J M, Vrijling J K
Road and Hydraulic Engineering division, Public Works and Water Management, Ministry of Transport, vd Burghweg 1, NL-2628 CS Delft, The Netherlands.
J Hazard Mater. 2003 Apr 4;99(1):1-30. doi: 10.1016/s0304-3894(02)00283-2.
A comprehensive overview of methods to quantify and limit risks arising from different sources is still missing in literature. Therefore, a study of risk literature was carried out by the authors. This article summarises about 25 quantitative risk measures. A risk measure is defined as a mathematical function of the probability of an event and the consequences of that event. The article focuses mainly on risk measures for loss of life (individual and societal risk) and economic risk, concentrating on risk measurement experiences in The Netherlands. Other types of consequences and some international practices are also considered. For every risk measure the most important characteristics are given: the mathematical formulation, the field of application and the standard set in this field. Some of the measures have been used in a case study to calculate the flood risks for an area in The Netherlands.
文献中仍缺少对量化和限制不同来源风险的方法的全面概述。因此,作者开展了一项风险文献研究。本文总结了约25种定量风险度量方法。风险度量被定义为事件概率及其后果的数学函数。本文主要关注生命损失(个人和社会风险)和经济风险的风险度量方法,重点是荷兰的风险度量经验。还考虑了其他类型的后果和一些国际惯例。对于每种风险度量方法,都给出了最重要的特征:数学公式、应用领域以及该领域设定的标准。其中一些度量方法已用于案例研究,以计算荷兰某地区的洪水风险。