Shai Donna, Lupinacci Paul
Department of Sociology, Villanova University, PA 19085, USA.
Public Health Rep. 2003 Mar-Apr;118(2):115-26. doi: 10.1093/phr/118.2.115.
This study investigates the possible causes of high levels of residential fire deaths to children younger than 15 years of age in Philadelphia from 1989 to 2000.
The authors analyzed 246 deaths from 146 residential fires by census tract in Philadelphia using both individual level data and aggregate level data drawn from the records of the Fire Marshall's Office. Death rates by age and sex were calculated using the 1990 Census. Data on fires from official records were combined with aggregate level data by census tract from the 1990 Census and analyzed using logistic regression. Newspaper articles on the fires analyzed were used to identify residences with possible fire code violations. The authors used data from the Philadelphia Bureau of Licenses and Inspections to provide evidence of code violations.
The statistically significant variables that resulted from the logistic regression were census tracts in the highest quartile for low income households, census tracts in the highest quartile for single-parent households with children younger than age 18, census tracts in the highest quartile for houses built before 1939, and the number of children younger than 15 years of age in a census tract.
Population characteristics by census tract are useful in identifying risk factors for residential fire deaths of children. Census tracts identified as at highest risk can provide fire prevention units with opportunities to take preventative measures such as the distribution of smoke detectors, and the education of residents about the dangers of careless smoking and planning for the rescue of children in the event of a fire.
本研究调查了1989年至2000年期间费城15岁以下儿童住宅火灾死亡人数居高不下的可能原因。
作者使用从消防局长办公室记录中提取的个体层面数据和总体层面数据,对费城按普查区划分的146起住宅火灾中的246例死亡进行了分析。使用1990年人口普查数据计算了各年龄和性别的死亡率。将官方记录中的火灾数据与1990年人口普查按普查区划分的总体层面数据相结合,并使用逻辑回归进行分析。分析的火灾相关报纸文章用于识别可能存在违反消防法规情况的住宅。作者使用费城执照与检查局的数据来提供违规证据。
逻辑回归得出的具有统计学意义的变量包括低收入家庭占比最高的四分位数普查区、有18岁以下子女的单亲家庭占比最高的四分位数普查区、1939年以前建造房屋占比最高的四分位数普查区,以及一个普查区内15岁以下儿童的数量。
按普查区划分的人口特征有助于识别儿童住宅火灾死亡的风险因素。被确定为风险最高的普查区可为消防预防单位提供采取预防措施的机会,如分发烟雾探测器,以及对居民进行关于粗心吸烟危害的教育和火灾发生时儿童救援计划的教育。