Korenromp Eline L, Williams Brian G, Gouws Eleanor, Dye Christopher, Snow Robert W
Malaria Control Department of WHO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Lancet Infect Dis. 2003 Jun;3(6):349-58. doi: 10.1016/s1473-3099(03)00657-1.
Reduction of deaths associated with malaria in children is a primary goal of malaria control programmes in Africa, but there has been little discussion about how changes in mortality will be measured. This paper assesses recent historical changes in the contribution of malaria to child survival in Africa by examining data from demographic surveillance systems (DSS) in 25 mainly rural settings. The data were adjusted for the varying sensitivity and specificity of verbal autopsies (VA) in different ranges of malaria mortality and for varying parasite prevalences. Average malaria mortality in the DSS sites in west Africa was 7.8 per 1000 child-years between 1982 and 1998; the rate did not change significantly over this period. In the sites in east and southern Africa combined, malaria mortality was 6.5 per 1000 child-years between 1982 and 1989, but it increased to 11.9 per 1000 child-years between 1990 and 1998. All-cause child mortality and non-malaria mortality, by contrast, decreased significantly over time in both regions; consequently, the proportion of deaths due to malaria rose from 18% to 23% in west African sites and from 18% to 37% in east and southern African sites between 1982-89 and 1990-98. If malaria mortality fell at a rate consistent with the Roll Back Malaria target of halving malaria mortality by the year 2010, an individual DSS of a total population of 63 500 could with adequate VA adjustment detect this reduction after 7 years.
降低儿童疟疾相关死亡人数是非洲疟疾控制项目的首要目标,但对于如何衡量死亡率变化却鲜有讨论。本文通过研究25个主要农村地区人口监测系统(DSS)的数据,评估了非洲疟疾对儿童生存贡献的近期历史变化。针对不同疟疾死亡率范围内口头尸检(VA)的敏感性和特异性差异以及不同的寄生虫流行率,对数据进行了调整。1982年至1998年期间,西非DSS站点的平均疟疾死亡率为每1000儿童年7.8例;在此期间该比率没有显著变化。在东非和南部非洲的站点合并计算时,1982年至1989年期间疟疾死亡率为每1000儿童年6.5例,但在1990年至1998年期间增至每1000儿童年11.9例。相比之下,两个地区的全因儿童死亡率和非疟疾死亡率均随时间显著下降;因此,在1982 - 89年至1990 - 98年期间,西非站点因疟疾导致的死亡比例从18%升至23%,东非和南部非洲站点从18%升至37%。如果疟疾死亡率以符合“遏制疟疾”目标(到2010年将疟疾死亡率减半)的速度下降,一个总人口为63500的个体DSS在经过充分的VA调整后,7年后能够检测到这种下降。