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洪水灾害与管理:英国视角

Flood hazard and management: a UK perspective.

作者信息

Wheater Howard S

机构信息

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London, UK.

出版信息

Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2006 Aug 15;364(1845):2135-45. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2006.1817.

Abstract

This paper discusses whether flood hazard in the UK is increasing and considers issues of flood risk management. Urban development is known to increase fluvial flood frequency, hence design measures are routinely implemented to minimize the impact. Studies suggest that historical effects, while potentially large at small scale, are not significant for large river basins. Storm water flooding within the urban environment is an area where flood hazard is inadequately defined; new methods are needed to assess and manage flood risk. Development on flood plains has led to major capital expenditure on flood protection, but government is attempting to strengthen the planning role of the environmental regulator to prevent this. Rural land use management has intensified significantly over the past 30 years, leading to concerns that flood risk has increased, at least at local scale; the implications for catchment-scale flooding are unclear. New research is addressing this issue, and more broadly, the role of land management in reducing flood risk. Climate change impacts on flooding and current guidelines for UK practice are reviewed. Large uncertainties remain, not least for the occurrence of extreme precipitation, but precautionary guidance is in place. Finally, current levels of flood protection are discussed. Reassessment of flood hazard has led to targets for increased flood protection, but despite important developments to communicate flood risk to the public, much remains to be done to increase public awareness of flood hazard.

摘要

本文探讨了英国的洪水灾害是否正在加剧,并对洪水风险管理问题进行了考量。众所周知,城市发展会增加河流洪水发生的频率,因此通常会采取设计措施来将影响降至最低。研究表明,历史影响虽然在小尺度上可能很大,但对于大型流域而言并不显著。城市环境中的雨水洪水是一个洪水灾害定义不充分的领域;需要新的方法来评估和管理洪水风险。洪泛平原上的开发导致了在防洪方面的大量资本支出,但政府正试图加强环境监管机构的规划作用以防止此类情况发生。在过去30年里,农村土地利用管理显著强化,这引发了人们对于洪水风险至少在局部尺度上有所增加的担忧;其对集水区尺度洪水的影响尚不清楚。新的研究正在解决这一问题,更广泛地说,是在研究土地管理在降低洪水风险方面的作用。本文还回顾了气候变化对洪水的影响以及英国现行的实践指南。仍然存在很大的不确定性,尤其是在极端降水的发生方面,但预防性指南已经出台。最后,本文讨论了当前的防洪水平。对洪水灾害的重新评估已经导致了提高防洪能力的目标,但尽管在向公众传达洪水风险方面取得了重要进展,但在提高公众对洪水灾害的认识方面仍有许多工作要做。

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