Aykan Hakan
US Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, Division of Disability, Aging, and Long-Term Care Policy, USA.
J Aging Soc Policy. 2003;15(1):33-53. doi: 10.1300/J031v15n01_03.
This study examines the likelihood of nursing home and home health care use for childless older Americans. Four research questions are addressed: (1) Are the childless elderly at a greater risk of nursing home and home health care use? (2) Is it childlessness per se or not having children with particular characteristics that affects the likelihood of using these formal long-term care services? (3) Does having additional children beyond the first one have a significant effect on the use of these services? (4) Are the effects of childlessness different on the likelihood of nursing home and home health care use? Longitudinal data from the first (1993) and second (1995) waves of the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old Survey (AHEAD) and multinomial logistic regression models are used for the analyses. Separate models are developed for women and men, each controlling for a variety of demographic, socioeconomic, and health-related characteristics of sample persons. Findings indicate childlessness as an important risk factor, especially for older women's use of nursing home services. Implications of findings for planning for long-term care needs of the baby boom generation are discussed.
本研究考察了无子女的美国老年人使用养老院和家庭医疗保健服务的可能性。研究了四个问题：（1）无子女的老年人使用养老院和家庭医疗保健服务的风险是否更高？（2）是无子女本身还是没有具有特定特征的子女影响了使用这些正规长期护理服务的可能性？（3）生育第一个孩子后再生育其他孩子是否会对这些服务的使用产生重大影响？（4）无子女对使用养老院和家庭医疗保健服务可能性的影响是否不同？分析使用了来自最年长老人资产与健康动态调查（AHEAD）第一波（1993年）和第二波（1995年）的纵向数据以及多项逻辑回归模型。针对女性和男性分别建立了模型，每个模型都控制了样本人员的各种人口统计学、社会经济和健康相关特征。研究结果表明无子女是一个重要的风险因素，尤其是对老年女性使用养老院服务而言。讨论了研究结果对婴儿潮一代长期护理需求规划的启示。
