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新兴经济体国家灾难性洪水风险的财务管理。

The financial management of catastrophic flood risks in emerging-economy countries.

作者信息

Kunreuther Howard C, Linnerooth-Bayer Joanne

机构信息

Department of Operations and Information Management, Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia 19104-6340, USA.

出版信息

Risk Anal. 2003 Jun;23(3):627-39. doi: 10.1111/1539-6924.00342.

Abstract

This article examines the potential of pre- and post-disaster instruments for funding disaster response and recovery and for creating incentives for flood loss mitigation in countries with emerging or transition economies. As a concrete case, we discuss the disaster recovery arrangements following the 1997 flood disaster in Poland. We examine the advantages and limitations of hedging instruments, which are instruments for transferring the risk to investors either through insurance or capital market-based securities. We compare these mechanisms with financing instruments whereby the government sets aside funds prior to a disaster or taps its own funding sources after the event occurs. We show how hedging instruments can be designed to create incentives for the mitigation of damage to public infrastructure using the flood proofing of a water-treatment plant on the hypothetical Topping River as an illustrative example. We conclude that hedging instruments can be an attractive alternative to financing instruments that have been traditionally used in the poorer, emerging-economy countries to fund disaster recovery. Since very poor countries are likely to have difficulty paying the price of protection prior to a disaster, we suggest that international lending institutions consider innovations for subsidizing these payments.

摘要

本文探讨了灾前和灾后工具在为灾害应对和恢复提供资金以及为新兴或转型经济体国家减轻洪水损失创造激励措施方面的潜力。作为一个具体案例,我们讨论了1997年波兰洪水灾害后的灾难恢复安排。我们研究了套期保值工具的优点和局限性,套期保值工具是通过保险或基于资本市场的证券将风险转移给投资者的工具。我们将这些机制与融资工具进行比较,在融资工具中,政府在灾难发生前预留资金或在事件发生后动用自身资金来源。我们以假设的托平河上一座水处理厂的防洪为例,展示了如何设计套期保值工具以激励减轻对公共基础设施的损害。我们得出结论,套期保值工具对于较贫穷的新兴经济体国家传统上用于为灾难恢复提供资金的融资工具而言,可能是一个有吸引力的替代方案。由于非常贫穷的国家在灾难发生前可能难以支付保护成本,我们建议国际贷款机构考虑为补贴这些支付进行创新。

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