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Distinguishing and combining risks for sexual and violent recidivism.

作者信息

Thornton David, Mann Ruth, Webster Steve, Blud Linda, Travers Rosie, Friendship Caroline, Erikson Matt

机构信息

Sand Ridge Secure Treatment Center, Mauston, Wisconsin 53948, USA.

出版信息

Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2003 Jun;989:225-35; discussion 236-46. doi: 10.1111/j.1749-6632.2003.tb07308.x.

Abstract

A two-dimensional risk assessment system for sexual offenders was created that can classify them for risk of sexual recidivism, risk of nonsexual violent recidivism, and the composite risk of reconviction for sexual or nonsexual assaults. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses of separate follow-up samples were used for cross-validation. The system is easier to score than Static-99, and substantially easier to score than the VRAG or SORAG, while yielding comparable predictive accuracy in cross-validation samples with follow-ups from 2 years to 19 years. ROC AUC coefficients between.74 and.81 were found for the different scales and samples.

摘要

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