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Curr Psychiatry Rep. 2018 May 19;20(6):46. doi: 10.1007/s11920-018-0909-8.
Risk assessment is one of the most ubiquitous tasks in the criminal justice system, informing virtually every decision made about offenders. This review, intended for researchers and practitioners, outlines some of the most important recent advances, emerging issues, and recommendations in sex offender risk assessment.
The underlying nature and purpose of risk scales is reviewed, with implications for how we should evaluate them. Limits of recidivism probability estimates are discussed, and efforts to advance a common language for describing risk levels are highlighted. Advances in risk communication and field validity are summarized. The utility of protective risk factors in risk assessments is debated. Emerging areas in assessing offender change and assessments with child pornography offenders are discussed. Despite critical advances in the last few years, there are still important gaps in knowledge, particularly for risk communication, field implementation, offender change, and child pornography offenders.
风险评估是刑事司法系统中最普遍的任务之一,几乎影响到对罪犯的每一个决策。本综述面向研究人员和从业者,概述了性犯罪者风险评估方面一些最重要的最新进展、新出现的问题和建议。
本文回顾了风险评估量表的基本性质和目的,以及这对我们评估它们的方式有何影响。讨论了累犯概率估计的局限性,并强调了努力推进描述风险水平的通用语言。总结了风险沟通和现场有效性方面的进展。在风险评估中使用保护风险因素的效用存在争议。讨论了评估罪犯变化和评估儿童色情制品罪犯方面的新领域。尽管在过去几年中取得了重大进展,但在知识方面仍存在重要差距,特别是在风险沟通、现场实施、罪犯变化和儿童色情制品罪犯方面。