Bollschweiler Elfriede
Department of Visceral and Vascular Surgery, University of Cologne, Joseph Stelzmann Strasse 9, 50931 Cologne, Germany.
Langenbecks Arch Surg. 2003 Sep;388(4):239-44. doi: 10.1007/s00423-003-0410-6. Epub 2003 Aug 14.
Especially in malign diseases, the therapeutic decision depends on the prognosis for the individual patient. A prognosis is a prediction of the future course of disease following its onset. Graphical representation of such statistical results-such as the well-known Kaplan-Meier curve-is often used to assist readers of a paper in the interpretation. However, mistakes and distortions frequently arise in the display and interpretation of survival plots. This review aims to highlight such pitfalls and provide recommendations for future practice.
Special topics are discussed: the criteria for the presentation of the survival curve, the problem of missing values, estimation of the prognosis in the presence of competing risks, comparison of treatment effects and analysis of survival by tumour-response category.
特别是在恶性疾病中，治疗决策取决于个体患者的预后。预后是指疾病发病后对其未来病程的预测。此类统计结果的图形表示，如著名的卡普兰 - 迈耶曲线，常被用于辅助论文读者进行解读。然而，在生存曲线的展示和解读中经常出现错误和扭曲。本综述旨在突出此类陷阱，并为未来实践提供建议。
讨论了以下专题：生存曲线呈现的标准、缺失值问题、存在竞争风险时的预后估计、治疗效果比较以及按肿瘤反应类别进行的生存分析。
