Britton T, Becker N G
Department of Mathematics, Uppsala University, S-751 06 Uppsala, Sweden.
Biostatistics. 2000 Dec;1(4):389-402. doi: 10.1093/biostatistics/1.4.389.
An estimation of the immunity coverage needed to prevent future outbreaks of an infectious disease is considered for a community of households. Data on outbreak size in a sample of households from one epidemic are used to derive maximum likelihood estimates and confidence bounds for parameters of a stochastic model for disease transmission in a community of households. These parameter estimates induce estimates and confidence bounds for the basic reproduction number and the critical immunity coverage, which are the parameters of main interest when aiming at preventing major outbreaks in the future. The case when individuals are homogeneous, apart from the size of their household, is considered in detail. The generalization to the case with variable infectivity, susceptibility and/or mixing behaviour is discussed more briefly. The methods are illustrated with an application to data on influenza in Tecumseh, Michigan.
对于一个家庭社区，考虑了预防未来传染病爆发所需的免疫覆盖率估计。利用来自一次疫情的家庭样本中的爆发规模数据，得出家庭社区疾病传播随机模型参数的最大似然估计值和置信区间。这些参数估计值可推导出基本再生数和临界免疫覆盖率的估计值及置信区间，而这两个参数是未来预防重大疫情爆发时的主要关注对象。详细考虑了个体除家庭规模外具有同质性的情况。对传染性、易感性和/或混合行为可变的情况的推广进行了更简要的讨论。通过应用密歇根州蒂尔西特市的流感数据对这些方法进行了说明。
