Longini I M, Koopman J S
Biometrics. 1982 Mar;38(1):115-26.
A model is devised for the distribution of the total number of cases in households from a homogeneous community. In the model, community-acquired infection serves as a source of initial infection within households as well as of possible further cases. In addition, infected household members can infect others in the household. Maximum likelihood procedures for the model parameters are given. The model is fitted to symptom data on influenza and the common cold. Influenza seems to spread more easily in the community than within the household, while the opposite may be the case for the common cold. The model, which does not require specification of the time of onset of infection for individuals, can be fitted to serological data; this would provide a more accurate measure of household infection than the symptom data used.
设计了一个模型，用于描述来自同质社区的家庭中病例总数的分布情况。在该模型中，社区获得性感染既是家庭内初始感染的来源，也是可能出现更多病例的源头。此外，受感染的家庭成员可将病毒传染给家庭中的其他成员。给出了模型参数的最大似然估计方法。该模型被应用于流感和普通感冒的症状数据。流感似乎在社区中比在家庭内传播得更容易，而普通感冒的情况可能正好相反。该模型不需要确定个体感染的发病时间，因此可应用于血清学数据；这将比所使用的症状数据提供更准确的家庭感染测量方法。
