Addy C L, Longini I M, Haber M
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of South Carolina, Columbia 29208.
Biometrics. 1991 Sep;47(3):961-74.
A stochastic infectious disease model was developed by Ball (1986, Advances in Applied Probability 18, 289-310) in which the distribution of the length of the infectious period is allowed to have any distribution that can be described by its Laplace transform. We extend this model such that the infection can be transmitted within the population or from an unspecified source outside the population. Also, discrete heterogeneity in the population can be modeled to incorporate variable susceptibility, variable infectivity, and/or mixing behaviors. The model is fitted to serologic data from two influenza epidemics in Tecumseh, Michigan, using maximum likelihood estimation procedures. The estimates show a clustering pattern by age groups.
一个随机传染病模型由鲍尔（1986年，《应用概率进展》18卷，289 - 310页）建立，其中感染期长度的分布被允许具有任何能用其拉普拉斯变换描述的分布。我们扩展了这个模型，使得感染可以在人群内部传播，或者从人群外部的某个未指定来源传播。此外，可以对人群中的离散异质性进行建模，以纳入可变易感性、可变传染性和/或混合行为。使用最大似然估计程序将该模型拟合到密歇根州蒂卡姆西两次流感流行的血清学数据。估计结果显示出按年龄组的聚类模式。
