传统发展与有序增长：城市无序扩张的代价。
Conventional development versus managed growth: the costs of sprawl.
作者信息
Burchell Robert W, Mukherji Sahan
机构信息
School of Urban Planning and Policy Development, Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers University, 33 Livingston Avenue, Room 363, New Brunswick, NJ 08901-1900, USA.
出版信息
Am J Public Health. 2003 Sep;93(9):1534-40. doi: 10.2105/ajph.93.9.1534.
OBJECTIVES
We examined the effects of sprawl, or conventional development, versus managed (or "smart") growth on land and infrastructure consumption as well as on real estate development and public service costs in the United States.
METHODS
Mathematical impact models were used to produce US estimates of differences in resources consumed according to each growth scenario over the period 2000-2025.
RESULTS
Sprawl produces a 21% increase in amount of undeveloped land converted to developed land (2.4 million acres) and approximately a 10% increase in local road lane-miles (188 300). Furthermore, sprawl causes about 10% more annual public service (fiscal) deficits ($4.2 billion US dollars) and 8% higher housing occupancy costs ($13 000 US dollars per dwelling unit).
CONCLUSIONS
Managed growth can save significant amounts of human and natural resources with limited effects on traditional development procedures.
目标
我们研究了城市无序扩张（即传统开发模式）与有序（或“明智”）增长模式对美国土地及基础设施消耗、房地产开发和公共服务成本的影响。
方法
运用数学影响模型来估算2000年至2025年期间美国在每种增长模式下资源消耗的差异。
结果
城市无序扩张使未开发土地转化为已开发土地的数量增加了21%（240万英亩），地方道路车道里程数增加了约10%（188,300英里）。此外，城市无序扩张导致年度公共服务（财政）赤字增加约10%（42亿美元），住房居住成本提高8%（每套住宅13,000美元）。
结论
有序增长模式能够节省大量人力和自然资源，同时对传统开发程序的影响有限。
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