Fernández Pérez Cristina, Taboada Lobo Cristina
Unidad de Apoyo a la Investigación, Hospital Clínico San Carlos, C/Profesor Martín Lagos s/n 28040 Madrid, España.
Arch Esp Urol. 2003 Jul-Aug;56(6):629-37.
Prognosis is a description of the course of a disease from the beginning. In comparison to risk factors, prognostic factors are relatively frequent and may often be estimated by our personal clinical experience. Nevertheless, the cases of diseases usually cared for at hospitals and described in the medical bibliography are often biased samples and have the tendency to overestimate severity. Cohort studies imply follow-up of the groups of individuals over time. They are the observational studies with the highest acceptance within the scientific community, because they include the target population in the study. If we look for providing solid information, the observation of the members of a cohort, independently of what they have in common, should comply with two criteria: 1. Cohorts should be observed for a significant period of time of the natural history of the event studied. 2. All members in a cohort should be observed for the full follow-up period. As in any cohorts observation, studies comparing prognosis among various groups of patients may be blased if differences appear due to cohort recruitment methods, patients shifting from their initial groups, and unequal results evaluation.
预后是对疾病从一开始的病程的描述。与风险因素相比，预后因素相对常见，并且通常可以通过我们个人的临床经验来估计。然而，通常在医院诊治并在医学文献中描述的疾病病例往往是有偏差的样本，并且有高估严重程度的倾向。队列研究意味着对个体群体进行长期随访。它们是科学界接受度最高的观察性研究，因为它们将目标人群纳入了研究。如果我们要提供可靠的信息，对一个队列成员的观察，无论他们有何共同之处，都应符合两个标准：1. 应对队列进行所研究事件自然史的一段重要时间的观察。2. 应在整个随访期内观察队列中的所有成员。与任何队列观察一样，如果由于队列招募方法、患者从初始组转移以及结果评估不平等而出现差异，那么比较不同患者组预后的研究可能会有偏差。
