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大赦计划是否会减少非法移民?来自《移民改革与控制法案》的证据。

Do amnesty programs reduce undocumented immigration? Evidence from IRCA.

作者信息

Orrenius Pia M, Zavodny Madeline

机构信息

Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2200 North Pearl Street, Dallas, TX 75201, USA.

出版信息

Demography. 2003 Aug;40(3):437-50. doi: 10.1353/dem.2003.0028.

Abstract

This article examines whether mass legalization programs reduce future undocumented immigration. We focus on the effects of the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act, which granted amnesty to nearly 2.7 million undocumented immigrants. We report that apprehensions of persons attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border illegally declined immediately following passage of the law but returned to normal levels during the period when undocumented immigrants could file for amnesty and the years thereafter. Our findings suggest that the amnesty program did not change long-term patterns of undocumented immigration from Mexico.

摘要

本文探讨大规模合法化计划是否会减少未来的无证移民。我们重点关注1986年《移民改革和控制法案》的影响,该法案给予了近270万无证移民大赦。我们报告称,在该法律通过后,试图非法穿越美墨边境的人员被捕数量立即下降,但在无证移民可以申请大赦的期间及其后的几年里又恢复到了正常水平。我们的研究结果表明,大赦计划并未改变来自墨西哥的无证移民的长期模式。

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