Donato K M, Durand J, Massey D S
Department of Sociology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge 70803.
Demography. 1992 May;29(2):139-57.
This study uses a new source of data to assess the degree to which the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) deterred undocumented migration from Mexico to the United States. Data were collected from migrants interviewed in seven Mexican communities during the winters of 1987 through 1989, as well as from out-migrants from those communities who subsequently located in the United States. We conduct time-series experiments that examine changes in migrants' behavior before and after passage of the IRCA in 1986. We estimate trends in the probability of taking a first illegal trip, the probability of repeat migration, the probability of apprehension by the Border Patrol, the probability of using a border smuggler, and the costs of illegal border crossing. In none of these analyses could we detect any evidence that IRCA has significantly deterred undocumented migration from Mexico.
本研究使用一种新的数据来源，以评估《移民改革与控制法案》（IRCA）在多大程度上阻止了从墨西哥到美国的无证移民。数据收集自1987年至1989年冬季在墨西哥七个社区接受访谈的移民，以及那些后来定居在美国的来自这些社区的外迁移民。我们进行了时间序列实验，研究了1986年IRCA通过前后移民行为的变化。我们估计了首次非法行程的概率、重复移民的概率、被边境巡逻队逮捕的概率、使用边境走私者的概率以及非法越境的成本的趋势。在这些分析中，我们均未发现任何证据表明IRCA显著阻止了从墨西哥的无证移民。
