Nawrotzki Raphael J, DeWaard Jack
University of Minnesota, Minnesota Population Center, 225 19th Avenue South, 50 Willey Hall, Minneapolis, MN 55455, U.S.A.
University of Minnesota, Department of Sociology & Minnesota Population Center, 225 19th Avenue South, 50 Willey Hall, Minneapolis, MN 55455, U.S.A.,
Popul Environ. 2016 Sep;38(1):72-100. doi: 10.1007/s11111-016-0255-x. Epub 2016 Mar 5.
Although evidence is increasing that climate shocks influence human migration, it is unclear exactly when people migrate after a climate shock. A climate shock might be followed by an immediate migration response. Alternatively, migration, as an adaptive strategy of last resort, might be delayed and employed only after available (in-place) adaptive strategies are exhausted. In this paper, we explore the temporally lagged association between a climate shock and future migration. Using multilevel event-history models, we analyze the risk of Mexico-U.S. migration over a seven-year period after a climate shock. Consistent with a delayed response pattern, we find that the risk of migration is low immediately after a climate shock and increases as households pursue and cycle through adaptive strategies available to them. However, about three years after the climate shock, the risk of migration decreases, suggesting that households are eventually successful in adapting .
尽管越来越多的证据表明气候冲击会影响人口迁移，但尚不清楚人们在气候冲击后究竟何时会迁移。气候冲击之后可能紧接着就会出现迁移反应。或者，迁移作为最后的适应性策略，可能会被推迟，只有在现有的（就地）适应性策略用尽之后才会采用。在本文中，我们探讨气候冲击与未来迁移之间的时间滞后关联。我们使用多层次事件史模型，分析气候冲击后七年期间墨西哥向美国迁移的风险。与延迟反应模式一致，我们发现气候冲击后立即迁移的风险较低，随着家庭采用并循环使用其可用的适应性策略，迁移风险会增加。然而，在气候冲击大约三年后，迁移风险降低，这表明家庭最终成功实现了适应。
