[Prospective, cohort, epidemiologic studies of laryngeal neoplasms in Italy].

Recent epidemiological studies show, quite surprisingly, a regression in mortality rates for lung cancer in some of the most industrialized countries of the world. Aetiopathogenetic analogies are made by the Authors in order to verify future trends concerning the incidence of laryngeal cancer in Italy. In this study a particular study model, which furnishes incidence rate expectations for the disease, is elaborated. Comparison of relative risks according to birth dates demonstrates that people born around 1930 are in the higher risk range while younger generations seem to show an effective incidence reduction. Evaluations include that of estimating the period in which the world-wide incidence of the disease will be maximum. With the addition of 70 years (main incidence in the seventh decade) to the year 1930 (the worst year) the study predicts that the end of this century will see the most consistent accumulation of new cases. After the year 2010 a trend towards a gradual regression in incidence will appear. The reasons are probably related to the social and cultural transformations of the last twenty years, particularly the progressive abandoning of the smoking habit.