Newton E A, Reiter P
Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, Port-of-Spain, Trinidad, West Indies.
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1992 Dec;47(6):709-20. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.1992.47.709.
We have developed a deterministic susceptible, exposed, infectious, resistant or removed (SEIR) model of dengue fever transmission that enables us to explore the behavior of an epidemic, and to experiment with vector control practices. Populations of both host and vector are divided into compartments representing disease status (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and, for humans, resistant), and the flow between compartments is described by differential equations. Examination of the equilibrium points leads to a formulation of the basic reproduction rate (Z0) of the disease. With a base set of parameters, Z0 = 1.9 and the model realistically reproduces epidemic transmission in an immunologically naive population. Control of adult mosquitoes by ultra-low volume (ULV) aerosols is simulated by an abrupt decrease in vector densities, followed by gradual recovery of the vector population. The model indicates that ULV has little impact on disease incidence, even when multiple applications are made, although the peak of the epidemic may be delayed. Decreasing the carrying capacity of the environment for mosquitoes, and thus the basic reproduction rate of the disease, by source reduction or other means, is more effective in reducing transmission.
我们开发了一种确定性的登革热传播易感、暴露、感染、抗性或移除（SEIR）模型，该模型使我们能够探究疫情的发展态势，并对病媒控制措施进行试验。宿主和病媒种群都被划分为代表疾病状态的不同类别（易感、暴露、感染，对于人类还有抗性），不同类别之间的流动由微分方程描述。对平衡点的研究得出了该疾病基本繁殖数（Z0）的公式。基于一组基础参数，Z0 = 1.9，该模型逼真地再现了免疫无经验人群中的疫情传播情况。通过超低容量（ULV）气雾剂控制成年蚊子的情况通过病媒密度的突然下降来模拟，随后病媒种群逐渐恢复。该模型表明，即使多次应用ULV，其对疾病发病率的影响也很小，尽管疫情高峰可能会延迟。通过源头减少或其他手段降低环境对蚊子的承载能力，进而降低疾病的基本繁殖数，在减少传播方面更有效。
