Phaijoo Ganga Ram, Gurung Dil Bahadur
Department of Natural Sciences (Mathematics), School of Science, Kathmandu University, Dhulikhel, Kavre, Nepal.
Comput Math Methods Med. 2017;2017:1747134. doi: 10.1155/2017/1747134. Epub 2017 Sep 19.
Dengue is a vector-borne infectious disease endemic in many parts of the world. The disease is spreading in new places due to human movement into the dengue disease supporting areas. Temperature is the major climatic factor which affects the biological processes of the mosquitoes and their interaction with the viruses. In the present work, we propose a multipatch model to assess the impact of temperature and human movement in the transmission dynamics of dengue disease. The work consists of system of ordinary differential equations that describe the transmission dynamics of dengue disease between humans and mosquitoes. Human population is divided into four classes: susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered. Mosquito population is divided into three classes: susceptible, exposed, and infectious. Basic reproduction number of the model is obtained using Next-Generation Matrix method. The qualitative analysis of the model is made in terms of the basic reproduction number. Parameters used in the model are considered temperature dependent. Dynamics of vector and host populations are investigated with different human movement rates and different temperature levels. Numerical results show that proper management of human movement between patches helps reducing the burden of dengue disease. It is also seen that the temperature affects the transmission dynamics of the disease significantly.
登革热是一种由媒介传播的传染病，在世界许多地区流行。由于人类迁入登革热疾病支持区域，该疾病正在新的地方传播。温度是影响蚊子生物学过程及其与病毒相互作用的主要气候因素。在本研究中，我们提出了一个多斑块模型，以评估温度和人类流动对登革热疾病传播动力学的影响。这项工作由描述人类和蚊子之间登革热疾病传播动力学的常微分方程组组成。人类种群分为四类：易感者、暴露者、感染者和康复者。蚊子种群分为三类：易感者、暴露者和感染者。使用下一代矩阵法获得模型的基本再生数。根据基本再生数对模型进行定性分析。模型中使用的参数被认为是温度依赖的。研究了不同人类流动率和不同温度水平下病媒和宿主种群的动态。数值结果表明，对斑块间人类流动进行适当管理有助于减轻登革热疾病的负担。还可以看出，温度对疾病传播动力学有显著影响。
