Kindig D A, Schmelzer J R, Hong W
Program in Health Management, University of Wisconsin-Madison School of Medicine 53706.
Health Serv Res. 1992 Oct;27(4):565-78.
Using data for 1975 to 1985 from the Area Resource File (ARF), net number changes in different age groups of physicians practicing in nonmetropolitan counties are examined. Small net increases are seen in the higher age groups in most county size categories but the most striking change is large increases in the age groups up to age 44. Family practitioners show a net decline in all county size categories for ages 45-54, but these are offset by increases in medical specialists. In counties of less than 25,000 population, the rate of turnover of physicians over the 1983-1988 period was 25 percent; physicians exiting these counties had a mean age of 52.3 years. The data indicate that aging of physicians in rural counties should not affect maintenance of current supply in the short run, but that increasing the physician-to-population ratio in areas with less adequate supply will be difficult, particularly if the rate of increase of younger physicians in nonmetropolitan counties does not continue.
利用区域资源文件（ARF）中1975年至1985年的数据，对在非都市县执业的不同年龄组医生的净人数变化进行了研究。在大多数县规模类别中，较高年龄组的净人数略有增加，但最显著的变化是44岁及以下年龄组的大幅增加。家庭医生在45 - 54岁的所有县规模类别中呈现净下降，但这些被医学专科医生的增加所抵消。在人口少于25000的县，1983 - 1988年期间医生的更替率为25%；离开这些县的医生平均年龄为52.3岁。数据表明，农村县医生的老龄化在短期内不应影响当前供应的维持，但在供应不足地区提高医生与人口的比例将很困难，特别是如果非都市县年轻医生的增长率不持续的话。
