Anderson H R, Pottier A C, Strachan D P
Department of Public Health Sciences, St George's Hospital Medical School, London.
Thorax. 1992 Jul;47(7):537-42. doi: 10.1136/thx.47.7.537.
Few studies present prospective data on the incidence of asthma. Its associations with sex and with prior and concurrent hay fever and eczema were examined in a nationally representative sample followed from birth to 23 years of age (British 1958 birth cohort).
Reports of asthma or wheezy bronchitis, hay fever and eczema were obtained by interview of parents of children at ages 7, 11, and 16 years, and of cohort members at age 23 years. Linked data from all four interviews were available on 7225 subjects (43% of the original birth cohort).
The cumulative incidence of asthma or wheezy bronchitis was 18.2%, 21.8%, 24.5%, and 28.6% by the ages of 7, 11, 16, and 23 years respectively. Over the four incidence periods examined (0 to 7 years, 8 to 11 years, 12 to 16 years, 17 to 23 years) the average annual incidence of new cases was 2.6%, 1.1%, 0.71%, and 0.76% respectively. The male:female incidence ratio rose from 1.23 in the 0 to 7 year period to 1.48 at 12 to 16 years but had reversed to 0.59 at 17 to 23 years. A prior report of hay fever or eczema each increased the subsequent incidence of asthma or wheezy bronchitis by a factor of 1.7 to 2.0 independently of sex. This effect of prior atopic illness, however, was largely explained by the strong independent association of incidence of asthma and wheezy bronchitis with atopic disease at the end of each incidence period (odds ratios 2.0 to 2.5 per atopic condition, p < 0.01).
Gender differences in the incidence of asthma or wheezy bronchitis vary with age and are not explained by atopy. The incidence of asthma or wheezy bronchitis can be predicted from a clinical history of hay fever or eczema but is more strongly associated with the presence of atopic disease at the time of onset.
很少有研究提供关于哮喘发病率的前瞻性数据。在一个具有全国代表性、从出生追踪到23岁的样本（英国1958年出生队列）中，研究了哮喘与性别、既往及同时存在的花粉症和湿疹之间的关联。
通过对7岁、11岁和16岁儿童的父母以及23岁队列成员进行访谈，获取哮喘或喘息性支气管炎、花粉症和湿疹的报告。对7225名受试者（占原出生队列的43%）可获得来自所有四次访谈的关联数据。
哮喘或喘息性支气管炎的累积发病率在7岁、11岁、16岁和23岁时分别为18.2%、21.8%、24.5%和28.6%。在研究的四个发病期（0至7岁、8至11岁、12至16岁、17至23岁），新病例的年均发病率分别为2.6%、1.1%、0.71%和0.76%。男女发病率之比从0至7岁时的1.23上升至12至16岁时的1.48，但在17至23岁时逆转至0.59。既往有花粉症或湿疹报告，各自独立于性别使随后哮喘或喘息性支气管炎的发病率增加1.
