Bongaarts John, Feeney Griffith
Population Council, New York, NY 10017, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2003 Nov 11;100(23):13127-33. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2035060100. Epub 2003 Sep 23.
The life expectancy implied by current age-specific mortality rates is calculated with life table methods that are among the oldest and most fundamental tools of demography. We demonstrate that these conventional estimates of period life expectancy are affected by an undesirable "tempo effect." The tempo effect is positive when the mean age at death is rising and negative when the mean is declining. Estimates of the effect for females in three countries with high and rising life expectancy range from 1.6 yr in the U.S. and Sweden to 2.4 yr in France for the period 1980-1995.
根据当前年龄别死亡率推算的预期寿命，是用生命表方法计算得出的，这些方法是人口统计学中最古老且最基本的工具之一。我们证明，这些传统的时期预期寿命估计值受到一种不良“节奏效应”的影响。当平均死亡年龄上升时，节奏效应为正；当平均死亡年龄下降时，节奏效应为负。在1980年至1995年期间，三个预期寿命高且不断上升的国家中，女性的这种效应估计值在美国和瑞典为1.6岁，在法国为2.4岁。
