Uribe Jorge M, Chuliá Helena, Guillen Montserrat
1Economics Department, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales y Económicas, Universidad del Valle, Calle 13, 100-00, Ciudadela Universitaria Meléndez Cali, Cali, Colombia.
2Riskcenter-IREA and UB School of Economics, Facultat de Ciències Econòmiques i Empresarials, University of Barcelona, Diagonal, 690, 08034 Barcelona, Spain.
Eur J Popul. 2018 Jan 15;34(5):793-817. doi: 10.1007/s10680-017-9460-2. eCollection 2018 Dec.
We offer a new approach for modeling past trends in the quantiles of the life table survivorship function. Trends in the quantiles are estimated, and the extent to which the observed patterns fit the unit root hypothesis or, alternatively, an innovative outlier model, are conducted. Then a factor model is applied to the detrended data, and it is used to construct quantile cycles. We enrich the ongoing discussion about human longevity extension by calculating specific improvements in the distribution of the survivorship function, across its full range, and not only at the central-age ranges. To illustrate our proposal, we use data for the UK from 1922 to 2013. We find that there is no sign in the data of any reduction in the pace of longevity extension during the last decades.
我们提供了一种新方法，用于对生命表生存函数分位数的过去趋势进行建模。我们估计了分位数的趋势，并检验了观察到的模式符合单位根假设的程度，或者，检验了符合创新型异常值模型的程度。然后，将因子模型应用于去趋势化的数据，并用于构建分位数周期。我们通过计算生存函数分布在其整个范围内（而不仅仅是在中年范围）的具体改善情况，丰富了关于人类寿命延长的正在进行的讨论。为了说明我们的提议，我们使用了1922年至2013年英国的数据。我们发现，数据中没有任何迹象表明在过去几十年中寿命延长的速度有所下降。
