Influence of the dispersion number on the estimation of coliform removal in ponds.

The paper uses the technique of Monte Carlo simulation in order to investigate the sensitivity to the Dispersion Number (d) of the effluent coliform concentration from facultative and maturation ponds. The Dispersion Number is one of the coefficients used in the dispersed-flow model for ponds. Initially, four empirical equations available in the literature for the estimation of d were compared, using the results from 1,000 runs of the Monte Carlo simulation. A second different set of Monte Carlo simulations (1,000 runs) was undertaken, allowing a sensitivity analysis of d, in conjunction with other coefficients and input data used in the design of facultative and maturation ponds (e.g., population, wastewater flow, coliform removal coefficient and others). The results of the simulations suggest that, when considering the high level of uncertainty in all input variables used in the design of the ponds for coliform removal, the Dispersion Number d does not present a greater influence in the model prediction, compared with the other input variables. Based on these considerations, it is likely that, for design purposes, simple models for the prediction of d can be used, without significantly affecting the estimation of the effluent coliform concentration, considering the existing uncertainty in all other input variables.