Chapron Guillaume, Legendre Stéphane, Ferrière Régis, Clobert Jean, Haight Robert G
Laboratoire d'écologie, CNRS UMR 7625, Ecole normale supérieure, 46, rue d'Ulm, 75230 Paris, France.
C R Biol. 2003 Jun;326(6):575-87. doi: 10.1016/s1631-0691(03)00148-3.
Securing the long-term acceptance of large carnivores such as the wolf (Canis lupus) in Europe and North America raises a difficult challenge to conservation biologists: planning removals to reduce depredations on livestock while ensuring population viability. We use stochastic-stage-structured population models to investigate wolf population dynamics and to assess alternative management strategies. Among the various management strategies advocated by agencies, zoning that involves eliminating wolves outside a restricted area should be designed with caution, because probabilities of extinction are extremely sensitive to the maximum number of packs that a zone can support and to slight changes in stage specific survival probabilities. In a zoned population, viability is enhanced more by decreasing mortality rates in all classes than by increasing wolf zone size. An alternative to zoning is adaptive management, where there is no limit on pack number but population control can be operated whenever some predefined demographic conditions are met. It turns out that an adaptive management strategy that removes a moderate percentage (10%) of the population following each year of more than 5% of total population growth would provide visible actions addressing public concerns while keeping extinction probability low.
在欧洲和北美，确保狼（Canis lupus）等大型食肉动物被长期接受，这给保护生物学家带来了一项艰巨挑战：既要规划捕杀行动以减少对家畜的捕食，又要确保种群的生存能力。我们使用随机阶段结构种群模型来研究狼的种群动态，并评估替代管理策略。在各机构倡导的各种管理策略中，涉及在限制区域外消灭狼的分区管理应谨慎设计，因为灭绝概率对一个区域所能支持的最大狼群数量以及特定阶段生存概率的微小变化极为敏感。在分区种群中，通过降低所有年龄段的死亡率来提高生存能力，比增加狼的分区面积更有效。分区管理的一种替代方法是适应性管理，即狼群数量没有限制，但只要满足一些预先定义的数据条件，就可以进行种群控制。事实证明，一种适应性管理策略是，在每年种群总增长超过5%之后，去除适度比例（10%）的种群，这样既能采取可见行动回应公众关切，又能保持低灭绝概率。
