Ohshige Kenji, Ii Masako, Nawata Kazumitsu, Mizushima Shunsaku, Tochikubo Osamu
Department of Public Health, Yokohama City University School of Medicine.
Nihon Koshu Eisei Zasshi. 2003 Sep;50(9):879-89.
We analyzed regional characteristics that potentially might affect regional demand for emergency medicine in Yokohama city and projected the number of future ambulance users.
The number of patients transported by ambulance was regarded as an index of the demand for emergency medicine. Various factors that may affect regional demand for emergency medicine were used as dependent variables in multiple regression analysis. The future population was estimated by the cohort change rate method based on the 1995 and 2000 censuses. Data pertaining to ambulance use were obtained from the Annual Fire Fighting Bulletin, Yokohama. Data pertaining to regional factors were obtained from the Annual Health Statistics Report, Yokohama; the Annual Health Statistics Report, Kanagawa; and the Statistics Report, Yokohama.
Statistically significant relations were observed between ambulance use per 1000 population and particular regional characteristics, i.e. the proportion of persons undergoing health examinations conducted by public health centers, the number of educational health promotion programs managed by the public sector, the proportion of persons in receipt of livelihood protection, the proportions of roads and commercial areas in each district in relation to the total area, the mean land price, the age-adjusted mortality rate, and the proportion of persons aged 65 years or over. The demand for emergency medicine in Yokohama city was predicted to increase dramatically as the population ages. The number of patients transported by ambulance, which was 121,606 in 2000, was projected to exceed 250,000 in 2030 and to approximate 300,000 in 2050.
The demand for emergency medicine will increase dramatically in Yokohama city as the society ages, Regional emergency medical systems should be improved accordingly.
我们分析了可能影响横滨市急诊医学区域需求的区域特征，并预测了未来救护车使用者的数量。
将救护车运送的患者数量视为急诊医学需求的指标。在多元回归分析中，将可能影响急诊医学区域需求的各种因素用作因变量。基于1995年和2000年的人口普查，采用队列变化率法估算未来人口。与救护车使用相关的数据来自横滨市年度消防公告。与区域因素相关的数据来自横滨市年度健康统计报告、神奈川县年度健康统计报告以及横滨市统计报告。
每千人口救护车使用量与特定区域特征之间存在统计学上的显著关系，即由公共卫生中心进行健康检查的人员比例、公共部门管理的教育健康促进项目数量、领取生活保障的人员比例、每个区道路和商业区面积占总面积的比例、平均地价、年龄调整死亡率以及65岁及以上人员的比例。预计随着横滨市人口老龄化，急诊医学需求将急剧增加。2000年救护车运送的患者数量为121,606人，预计到2030年将超过250,000人，到2050年将接近300,000人。
随着社会老龄化，横滨市急诊医学需求将急剧增加，应相应改善区域急诊医疗系统。
