Reshetin Vladimir P, Regens James L
Joint Institute for Power and Nuclear Research, nationa Academy of Sciences of Belarus, Sosny-Minsk, 220109, Belarus.
Risk Anal. 2003 Dec;23(6):1135-45. doi: 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2003.00387.x.
Recent events have increased awareness of the risk posed by terrorist attacks. Bacillus anthracis has resurfaced in the 21st century as a deadly agent of bioterrorism because of its potential for causing massive civilian casualties. This analysis presents the results of a computer simulation of the dispersion of anthrax spores in a typical 50-story, high-rise building after an intentional release during a bioterrorist incident. The model simulates aerosol dispersion in the case of intensive, small-scale convection, which equalizes the concentration of anthrax spores over the building volume. The model can be used to predict the time interval required for spore dispersion throughout a building after a terrorist attack in a high-rise building. The analysis reveals that an aerosol release of even a relatively small volume of anthrax spores during a terrorist incident has the potential to quickly distribute concentrations that are infectious throughout the building.
近期事件提高了人们对恐怖袭击所构成风险的认识。炭疽芽孢杆菌在21世纪再度出现，成为生物恐怖主义的致命因子，因为它有可能造成大量平民伤亡。本分析展示了在生物恐怖事件中故意释放后，炭疽芽孢在一座典型的50层高的高层建筑中扩散的计算机模拟结果。该模型模拟了在强烈的小规模对流情况下的气溶胶扩散，这种对流使建筑物内炭疽芽孢的浓度趋于均衡。该模型可用于预测在高层建筑发生恐怖袭击后，芽孢在整座建筑物内扩散所需的时间间隔。分析表明，在恐怖事件中即使释放相对少量体积的炭疽芽孢形成气溶胶，也有可能迅速在建筑物内分布具有传染性的浓度。
