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长期气候变化的挑战。

The challenge of long-term climate change.

作者信息

Hasselmann K, Latif M, Hooss G, Azar C, Edenhofer O, Jaeger C C, Johannessen O M, Kemfert C, Welp M, Wokaun A

机构信息

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany.

出版信息

Science. 2003 Dec 12;302(5652):1923-5. doi: 10.1126/science.1090858.

Abstract

Climate policy needs to address the multidecadal to centennial time scale of climate change. Although the realization of short-term targets is an important first step, to be effective climate policies need to be conceived as long-term programs that will achieve a gradual transition to an essentially emission-free economy on the time scale of a century. This requires a considerably broader spectrum of policy measures than the primarily market-based instruments invoked for shorter term mitigation policies. A successful climate policy must consist of a dual approach focusing on both short-term targets and long-term goals.

摘要

气候政策需要应对气候变化的数十年至数百年时间尺度。虽然实现短期目标是重要的第一步,但要想有效,气候政策应被视为长期计划,在一个世纪的时间尺度上逐步实现向基本无排放经济的过渡。这需要比主要用于短期减缓政策的基于市场的手段更为广泛的一系列政策措施。成功的气候政策必须包括关注短期目标和长期目标的双重方法。

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