Van Vuuren D P, Meinshausen M, Plattner G-K, Joos F, Strassmann K M, Smith S J, Wigley T M L, Raper S C B, Riahi K, de la Chesnaye F, den Elzen M G J, Fujino J, Jiang K, Nakicenovic N, Paltsev S, Reilly J M
Global Sustainability and Climate, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008 Oct 7;105(40):15258-62. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0711129105. Epub 2008 Oct 6.
Estimates of 21st Century global-mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multigas mitigation scenarios, based on a wide range of modeling approaches and socioeconomic assumptions, now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. This article assesses the atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, radiative forcing, and temperature increase for these new scenarios using two reduced-complexity climate models. These scenarios result in temperature increase of 0.5-4.4 degrees C over 1990 levels or 0.3-3.4 degrees C less than the no-policy cases. The range results from differences in the assumed stringency of climate policy and uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system. Notably, an average minimum warming of approximately 1.4 degrees C (with a full range of 0.5-2.8 degrees C) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here. This value is substantially above previously estimated committed warming based on climate system inertia alone. The results show that, although ambitious mitigation efforts can significantly reduce global warming, adaptation measures will be needed in addition to mitigation to reduce the impact of the residual warming.
对21世纪全球平均地表温度上升的估计通常基于不包括气候政策的情景。新开发的多气体减排情景基于广泛的建模方法和社会经济假设，现在可以评估气候政策对预计变暖范围的可能影响。本文使用两个简化复杂性气候模型评估了这些新情景下的大气二氧化碳浓度、辐射强迫和温度上升情况。这些情景导致温度比1990年水平上升0.5 - 4.4摄氏度，或比无政策情景低0.3 - 3.4摄氏度。该范围源于假设的气候政策严格程度的差异以及我们对气候系统理解的不确定性。值得注意的是，即使是这里分析的最严格的稳定情景，平均最低变暖仍约为1.4摄氏度（全范围为0.5 - 2.8摄氏度）。该值大大高于此前仅基于气候系统惯性估计的承诺变暖。结果表明，尽管雄心勃勃的减排努力可以显著减少全球变暖，但除了减排之外，还需要采取适应措施来减少残余变暖的影响。
