Eichner J F, Koscielny-Bunde E, Bunde A, Havlin S, Schellnhuber H-J
Institut für Theoretische Physik III, Universität Giessen, D-35392 Giessen, Germany.
Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2003 Oct;68(4 Pt 2):046133. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.68.046133. Epub 2003 Oct 28.
We use several variants of the detrended fluctuation analysis to study the appearance of long-term persistence in temperature records, obtained at 95 stations all over the globe. Our results basically confirm earlier studies. We find that the persistence, characterized by the correlation C(s) of temperature variations separated by s days, decays for large s as a power law, C(s) approximately s(-gamma). For continental stations, including stations along the coastlines, we find that gamma is always close to 0.7. For stations on islands, we find that gamma ranges between 0.3 and 0.7, with a maximum at gamma=0.4. This is consistent with earlier studies of the persistence in sea surface temperature records where gamma is close to 0.4. In all cases, the exponent gamma does not depend on the distance of the stations to the continental coastlines. By varying the degree of detrending in the fluctuation analysis we obtain also information about trends in the temperature records.
我们使用去趋势波动分析的几种变体，来研究全球95个站点获取的温度记录中长程持续性的出现情况。我们的结果基本证实了早期的研究。我们发现，以相隔s天的温度变化的相关性C(s)为特征的持续性，对于大的s以幂律形式衰减，C(s)约为s^(-γ)。对于包括沿海岸线的站点在内的大陆站点，我们发现γ总是接近0.7。对于岛屿上的站点，我们发现γ在0.3到0.7之间变化，在γ = 0.4时达到最大值。这与早期对海面温度记录中持续性的研究一致，其中γ接近0.4。在所有情况下，指数γ不依赖于站点到大陆海岸线的距离。通过改变波动分析中的去趋势程度，我们还获得了关于温度记录趋势的信息。
