Grenfell Bryan T, Pybus Oliver G, Gog Julia R, Wood James L N, Daly Janet M, Mumford Jenny A, Holmes Edward C
Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK.
Science. 2004 Jan 16;303(5656):327-32. doi: 10.1126/science.1090727.
A key priority for infectious disease research is to clarify how pathogen genetic variation, modulated by host immunity, transmission bottlenecks, and epidemic dynamics, determines the wide variety of pathogen phylogenies observed at scales that range from individual host to population. We call the melding of immunodynamics, epidemiology, and evolutionary biology required to achieve this synthesis pathogen "phylodynamics." We introduce a phylodynamic framework for the dissection of dynamic forces that determine the diversity of epidemiological and phylogenetic patterns observed in RNA viruses of vertebrates. A central pillar of this model is the Evolutionary Infectivity Profile, which captures the relationship between immune selection and pathogen transmission.
传染病研究的一个关键优先事项是阐明病原体的基因变异如何在宿主免疫、传播瓶颈和流行动态的调节下，决定在从个体宿主到种群的尺度上观察到的各种各样的病原体系统发育。我们将实现这种综合所需的免疫动力学、流行病学和进化生物学的融合称为病原体“系统发育动力学”。我们引入了一个系统发育动力学框架，用于剖析决定在脊椎动物RNA病毒中观察到的流行病学和系统发育模式多样性的动态力量。该模型的一个核心支柱是进化感染性概况，它捕捉了免疫选择与病原体传播之间的关系。
