[Influence of climatic changes on the spread of malaria in the Russian Federation].

The climatic temperature conditions of the atmospheric surface layer in the given point of geographic space are considered in this paper to be favourable for human malaria if the number of years whose temperature conditions allow the causative agent to complete sporogony in the vector if only once is at least 90%. In another case, the conditions are considered to be unfavourable. This model criterion determines the potential region of the disease. The diagrammatic maps depicting such potential regions, as well as their changes in the period of 1966-1995 as compared to the period of 1936-1965, are given in this paper for tertian (P. vivax) and tropical (P. falciparum) malaria. The threshold empirical relationship of sporogony success to the variations of the mean diurnal temperature in a specific year and the series of diurnal data of meteorological observations made for many years at 223 weather stations situated on the territory of the former USSR. An analysis shows that there has been a slight increase in the regions in Asian Russia for 30 years while there has been a just more noticeable reduction in them in European Russia. By and large the changes in the regions may be regarded as just moderate.