Bondarenko O O, Melnychuk D V, Medvedev S Yu
SSSIE Ecocentre, 6 Shkilna Street, Chernobyl 07270 Kyivska oblast, Ukraine.
Radiat Prot Dosimetry. 2003;107(4):253-8. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.rpd.a006398.
In view of the probabilistic nature and very wide uncertainty of internal exposure assessment, its deterministic ('precise') assessment does not protect against not exceeding established reference levels or even the dose limits for a particular individual. Minimising such potential risks can be achieved by setting up a sufficiently wide confidence interval for an expected dose distribution instead of its average ('best' estimate) value, and by setting the limit at the 99% fractile level. The ratio of the 99% level and the mean ('best' estimate) is referred to as the safety coefficient. It is shown for the typical radiological conditions inside the Chernobyl Sarcophagus that the safety coefficient corresponding to the 99% fractile of the expected internal dose distribution varies within the range from 5 to 10. The maintenance of minimum uncertainty and sufficient sensitivity of the indirect dosimetry method requires measurement of individual daily urinary excretion of 239Pu at a level of at least 4 x 10(-5) Bq. For the purpose of reducing the uncertainty of individual internal dose assessment and making dosimetric methods workable. it is suggested that the results of workplace monitoring are combined with the results of periodic urinary and faecal bioassay measurements.
鉴于内照射剂量评估的概率性质和极大的不确定性,其确定性(“精确”)评估并不能确保特定个体不超过既定参考水平甚至剂量限值。通过为预期剂量分布设定足够宽的置信区间而非其平均值(“最佳”估计值),并将限值设定在第99百分位数水平,可以将此类潜在风险降至最低。第99百分位数与平均值(“最佳”估计值)的比值称为安全系数。结果表明,在切尔诺贝利石棺内部的典型辐射条件下,预期内照射剂量分布的第99百分位数对应的安全系数在5至10的范围内变化。为保持间接剂量测定法的最小不确定性和足够灵敏度,需要测量个体每日尿中239Pu排泄量,水平至少为4×10^(-5)贝克勒尔。为降低个体内照射剂量评估的不确定性并使剂量测定方法可行,建议将工作场所监测结果与定期尿和粪便生物测定测量结果相结合。