Schmertmann C P
Center for the Study of Population, Florida State University, Tallahassee 32306-4063.
Demography. 1992 Nov;29(4):595-612.
A sustained regime of low fertility plus immigration yields an unusual kind of stationary population. The author demonstrates that all stationary populations have a common structure, and that the familiar replacement-level fertility population is the youngest among the many stationary populations corresponding to a particular life table. This finding has important consequences for policy because although fertility increase and immigration are equally effective at halting population decline, immigration is inferior as a means of rejuvenating low-fertility populations. In fact, an immigration-based policy could make a low-fertility population older rather than younger. The paper includes examples using U.S. and West German vital rates.
低生育率加上移民的持续模式会产生一种特殊的静止人口。作者证明，所有静止人口都有一个共同的结构，而且在与特定生命表相对应的众多静止人口中，常见的更替水平生育率人口是最年轻的。这一发现对政策具有重要影响，因为尽管生育率提高和移民在阻止人口下降方面同样有效，但作为使低生育率人口年轻化的手段，移民效果较差。事实上，基于移民的政策可能会使低生育率人口老龄化而非年轻化。本文包含了使用美国和西德人口动态率的示例。
