Keely C B, Kraly E P
Demography. 1978 Aug;15(3):267-83.
Estimates of the size and structure of recent alien immigration to the United States are made. Substituting these revised estimates in the Series II projections of the U.S. Bureau of the Census implies a future U.S. population smaller than that implied by the Census Bureau's estimates of immigration. The analysis of Coale (1972)--which calculates the decline in native-born fertility required to accommodate immigration and, at the same time, maintain a stationary population--is replicated, using both the Census Bureau's estimates and the revised estimates reported here. The revised estimates indicate a smaller reduction in native fertility and a smaller ultimate size of the stationary population than are implied by the Census Bureau's immigration estimates. The importance of age structure in all of these calculations is demonstrated.
本文对近期美国外来移民的规模和结构进行了估算。将这些修订后的估算值代入美国人口普查局的第二套预测数据中，意味着未来美国人口将比人口普查局对移民的估算所暗示的人口规模更小。我们重复了科尔（1972年）的分析——该分析计算了为接纳移民并同时维持人口稳定所需的本土生育率下降情况——分别使用了人口普查局的估算值和此处报告的修订后的估算值。修订后的估算值表明，与人口普查局的移民估算值相比，本土生育率的下降幅度更小，稳定人口的最终规模也更小。文中展示了年龄结构在所有这些计算中的重要性。
